Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Hovering at 200 Day EMA

Natural gas markets have stabilized a bit during the trading session on Friday, as we are hanging about the 200 day EMA. The 200 day EMA of course is an indicator that a lot of people pay close attention to, so therefore I think it makes a certain amount of sense that we would pause in this area. Beyond that, the market has been oversold, so I think it does make quite a bit of sense that we would see the market catch its breath. Furthermore, we are sitting just above the $4.00 level, which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure.

NATGAS Video 06.12.21

If we do break down below the $4.00 level, then it is likely that the market breaks down quite a bit. All things been equal, this is a market that I think will continue to see a lot of noisy trading behavior, but the market needs to break above the 50 day EMA at the very least for me to consider buying. Currently, that is sitting at the $5.03 level, and quite frankly I think the $4.75 level will be massive resistance as it was significant support previously.

Based upon the triangle that I have drawn on the chart, it suggests that natural gas could drop all the way down to the $3.00 level. Obviously, that would be a longer-term signal, but at this point in time we are seeing a mild winter in the United States, which of course will have a major influence on this market. We are already trading the January contract, so it is not a real stretch to see how markets will continue to drop.

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